Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 13 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs West Coast Eagles: Greater Western Sydney Giants -8.5 spreads_q3, priced at -109 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs West Coast Eagles: Greater Western Sydney Giants -8.5 spreads_q3 (-109)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright footy fans, let's dissect this upcoming clash between the Greater Western Sydney Giants and the West Coast Eagles. The Giants, playing at ENGIE Stadium, have been showing some promising form lately, especially at home. Over their last five games, they've been a force to be reckoned with, averaging 54 Inside50s and 26.6 Shotsatgoal per game. Their scoring ability has been on the rise, averaging 12.2 Target Goals and 82.2 Points For at home. On the flip side, the Eagles have struggled on the road, averaging just 46.8 Inside50s and 21.4 Shotsatgoal in their last five away games. Their defensive line has been conceding an average of 92.6 Points Against. With such a stark contrast in form and scoring records, backing the Greater Western Sydney Giants to cover the -8.5 spread in the third quarter seems like a prudent play. Get ready to witness the Giants snagging goals and dominating the Eagles on their home turf.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When Essendon clashes with Sydney at the iconic MCG, the stage is set for a high-scoring opening quarter. The Bombers, fueled by their recent form, are averaging a solid 9.2 goals per game at home. With an impressive 46.2 inside 50s and 19.4 shots on goal in their last five home games, Essendon's attacking prowess is undeniable. On the flip side, the Swans have been leaking points on the road, conceding an average of 97.6 points in their last five away matches and 86.2 overall. This sets the scene for Essendon to come out firing, capitalizing on their home ground advantage and exploiting Sydney's defensive vulnerabilities. Expect the Bombers to hit the scoreboard early, easily surpassing the 14.5 points mark in the first quarter. This bet is all about backing Essendon's offensive potency against Sydney's shaky defense.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to the Brisbane Lions hosting the Gold Coast Suns at the Gabba, the numbers paint a clear picture. The Lions have been a force at home, averaging 63.6 Inside50s and 37 Shotsatgoal in their last five home games. Their scoring prowess is evident, with an average of 17.6 Target Goals and 118.4 Points For per game during this span. On the flip side, the Suns have been leaky on the road, conceding an average of 97 points in their last five away games and 99.4 points overall. With the Lions' offensive firepower and the Suns' defensive vulnerabilities, the Under 27.5 for Brisbane's Team Totals Q1 seems like a smart play. Expect the Lions to come out firing but fall just short of the lofty mark against a Suns team looking to tighten up defensively early on.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Adelaide Crows are buzzing with confidence as they gear up to face the Greater Western Sydney Giants at the Adelaide Oval. Over their last five games, the Crows have been nothing short of dominant on home turf, boasting an impressive average margin of 15.4 points. They've been sharpshooters in front of goal, averaging 82.2 points for and 24.8 shots on target per game. On the flip side, the Giants have struggled on the road, averaging a mere 7.8-point margin and conceding an average of 76.4 points. With the Crows' attacking prowess and solid defensive record, it's no surprise they're favored by -16.5. Expect Adelaide to control the game, capitalize on their inside 50s, and snag a comfortable win against the struggling Giants.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's break down why backing the Adelaide Crows at +17.5 could be a savvy play in their clash with the Fremantle Dockers at Optus Stadium. The Crows have been on the road lately, boasting a solid average margin of 28.2 in their last five away games. Their scoring prowess is nothing to scoff at, averaging 102.6 points per game during this stretch. On the flip side, the Dockers have shown some defensive vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 52.8 points at home. With Adelaide's ability to find the big sticks consistently and Freo's tendency to leak points, the Crows have a good chance to keep this one closer than the bookies anticipate. So, don't be surprised if the Crows snag a goal or two and make a real contest of it!
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs West Coast Eagles: Under 25.5 team_totals_q1 (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Mate, if you're eyeing the Greater Western Sydney Giants to keep it tight early against the West Coast Eagles, the numbers are stacking up in your favor. In their last five home games, the Giants have been averaging 82.2 points per match, but facing a solid defensive Eagles outfit that's only conceding 92.6 points on the road lately could spell a lower-scoring opening quarter. With the Giants averaging 12.2 target goals at home recently and the Eagles allowing just 96.2 points overall in their last five games, it's looking like a hard-fought battle early on. The Giants might need to grind out their attacks against the Eagles' defensive wall, which could result in a more conservative scoring quarter. So, snagging the Under 25.5 on the Team Totals for the Giants in the first quarter could be a wise play here.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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